Next week, the National Bureau of Statistics will release macroeconomic data for the third quarter. "Securities Daily" reporter interviewed a number of industry experts, are expected to be optimistic about the third quarter data, the third quarter GDP growth rate or more than 4%. At the same time, with the continuous effect of the series of policies to stabilize growth introduced earlier, the Chinese economy has shown a trend of stabilization and recovery, and the internal growth impetus of the economy has continued to strengthen.
Economic growth slows in third quarter
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, told the Securities Daily reporter that the economy in the third quarter "opened low and went high", and a number of macro data were less than expected in July due to adverse factors such as extreme weather. In response to the pressure of economic deceleration, a package of counter-cyclical macro policies continue to work, including lowering the reserve ratio "interest rate", supporting the development of the private economy, etc. At present, these policies are continuing to promote economic stabilization and recovery, and the marginal recovery of macro data in August. From the high-frequency indicators in September, the positive factors of the current economic recovery are increasing, and it is expected that the economic growth rate will remain stable in the whole quarter.
In terms of industry, Zhang Wenlang, chief macro analyst of the research department of China International Capital Corporation, told the Securities Daily reporter that the industrial production boom has improved, and it is expected that the industrial added value in September will grow by 4.3% year-on-year.
Wen Bin said that from the point of view of the operating rate of high frequency indicators, the operating rate of automobile tires, half steel tires and all steel tires, blast furnaces, as well as methanol, polyester filament, etc. rebounded from last month. Marginal improvement in internal and external demand, as well as a rise in the willingness of enterprises to replenish inventories, led to a recovery in manufacturing production. In addition to manufacturing, the recovery in commodity prices will support mining production, which is expected to continue to accelerate in September from the previous month, but due to a higher base in the same period last year, the year-on-year growth rate is expected to pick up slightly to about 4.7%.
In terms of consumption, Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told the Securities Daily reporter that the economic repair momentum in the third quarter has become stronger, and the main driving factor behind it is that the economy itself has spontaneous repair momentum. This is clearly reflected in the continued rapid rebound in service consumption this year, and this trend was continued in the third quarter.
Wen Bin said that in September, various places continue to introduce policies to promote consumption, organize and carry out various key activities to promote consumption, coupled with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day in parallel, the Hangzhou Asian Games throughout the holiday, residents' willingness to travel is rising, and promote the continued recovery of the consumer market. Taking into account the decline in the same period last year, it is expected that the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods is expected to rebound to about 5.5% in September.
Zhang Wenlang said that from the perspective of major commodities, the expansion of the service industry has accelerated, among which the retail and postal business activity indexes have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous month, showing that residents' daily online and offline consumption activities are performing well; Automobile consumption performance is bright, September 1 to 24, passenger car market retail sales increased by 13% year-on-year; Affected by the continuous increase of domestic refined oil prices, the growth of oil and product consumption will accelerate; With the accelerated introduction of real estate optimization policies, commercial housing transactions improved month-on-month in September, helping to repair real estate-related consumption.
In terms of investment, Bian Spring water, chief analyst of Western Securities macro, told reporters of Securities Daily that since the end of August, the real estate policy has been further optimized. The real estate construction manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) picked up in September, and cement prices stabilized. At the same time, the pace of local bond issuance has accelerated, and the proactive fiscal policy has intensified. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in September will continue to pick up, and the cumulative growth rate in the first nine months will be 3.1%.
Comprehensive sub-forecast, Zhang Wenlang believes that under the background of rising base, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter is 4.1%, which is down from the second quarter, corresponding to the compound growth rate of four years is basically flat in the second quarter; Quarter-on-quarter growth was 2.1%, up from 0.8% in the second quarter.
Economic repair continues to gain momentum
"At present, the effect of domestic 'steady growth' policy is gradually showing, the fundamentals have basically been verified, and the economy is expected to further improve with the effect of real estate policy." Wen Bin said.
Wang Qing told reporters that the steady growth policy continued to work in the fourth quarter, and the possibility of the central bank further lowering the medium-term lending facility (MLF) interest rate cannot be completely ruled out. The momentum of economic repair is expected to further strengthen, coupled with the sinking growth base of the same period last year, GDP is expected to reach 5.5% in the fourth quarter, and the two-year average growth rate will further rise to 4.3%.
Wang Qing further said that the momentum of economic growth in the fourth quarter is expected to improve comprehensively, among which the momentum of consumption repair will continue to strengthen, investment growth will turn from a decline to an increase, and the drag effect of external demand on economic growth will also be eased. In addition, in the context of the continuous increase of measures to stabilize the property market, the real estate market is expected to stabilize and recover in the fourth quarter, and its impact on consumption and investment confidence will be weakened.
(Source: Securities Daily)
